2024 DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC PREVIEW & TIPS
The DP World Tour stays in the United Arab Emirates for the second week running for the Dubai Desert Classic, the first of five Rolex Series events and the second on the International Swing section this season.
It is the third straight year this tournament has been part of the Rolex Series and the 33rd time it has been staged at Emirates Golf Club, which has been the host from 1989 to 1998 and 2001 onwards.
A 126-strong field will be battling it out for the victory, which brings with it a cheque for $1.53 million. Reigning champion Rory McIlroy is 7/2 for a record fourth success.
REPEAT OF DUBAI CREEK BATTLE
McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood were the top two in the betting for last week's inaugural Dubai Invitational and it ended up being the Ryder Cup team-mates, along with South African Thriston Lawrence, who were fighting for the title on the final day.
It appeared McIlroy had the title in his grasp but an error at the final hole allowed Fleetwood to steal in and snatch a dramatic victory from the jaws of defeat, ending one stroke ahead on -19.
McIlroy and Lawrence shared second place on -18 and the duo, alongside Fleetwood, will be hoping to put in another strong performance at the Dubai Desert Classic.
How the Northern Irishman responds from Sunday's late heartbreak will be interesting to see and he can be overlooked at odds of 7/2 given these doubts, while Fleetwood's 17/2 also looks short given how much he put in to win last week.
Out of the three, South African Lawrence makes more appeal at 40/1. If he maintains his strong putting form at Emirates Golf Club, there is every chance he can contend again.
Tip 1 – Tom McKibbin to win (each-way) @ 125/1
There looks to be huge value further down the betting this week and one player that stands out is Tom McKibbin, who made his mark on the DP World Tour in June last year when breaking his duck at the European Open.
Having grown up at Holywood Golf Club, the same place as McIlroy, expectations are high for the 21-year-old, but he proved in that triumph at Green Eagle Golf Course that he can handle the pressure on a demanding layout.
The glaring statistics from McIlroy's Desert Classic win last year came in par-four scoring and strokes gained off-the-tee, two areas he was unrivalled in, while he was also 11th in strokes gained from putting. McIlroy's driving gave him an edge over the field, as he regularly created opportunities to attack the greens, therefore it seems logical to back McKibbin given he is sixth in strokes gained off-the-tee and seventh in driving accuracy this season.
Add in his ranking of 15th in putts per round and one putts and the world number 160, who is just three places off his highest-ever spot in the world rankings, looks like a solid contender.
Tip 2 – Louis de Jager to Win (each-way) @ 150/1
Another player to watch out for is South African Louis de Jager, a five-time winner on the Sunshine Tour who has a top-five and a top-10 finish to his name this season.
The 36-year-old's big asset is the driver, which has him second in strokes gained off-the-tee and 10th in distance – a solid performance with this club can put him on the path to success.
De Jager was 51st on his debut here last year and the lessons learned from that previous outing should stand him in good stead for a better crack at the title this week.
Tip 3 – Jayden Schaper to win (each-way) @ 90/1
Rounding off the selections is another South African in the shape of Jayden Schaper, who has shown some fantastic form already this season and does not look far away from a DP World Tour breakthrough.
The 22-year-old ended 2023 with four straight top-10 finishes – going tied ninth, tied fifth, tied seventh and sixth – so he will be full of confidence ahead of his first outing of 2024.
Schaper ranks second in total strokes gained and 21st in approach, while he is also 15th in scrambling and 22nd in strokes gained from putting to further enhance his claims.
With a lot of attention expected to be on the likes of McIlroy, Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Brian Harman, Cameron Young and others who are towards the top of the betting, Schaper heads into this tournament nicely under the radar and he could make a big splash in Dubai.
Discover the full range of betting options and markets in our dedicate Dubai Classic Golf betting page.
It's showtime!