Megan Nicholls Racing Preview: Newmarket Saturday Tips
Newmarket 13.15 – Darley Stakes (Group 3)
I’m going with Humidity (5/2), who hasn’t been seen for a while and has been gelded since we last saw him, when he finished behind Bow Echo in the Royal Lodge Stakes.
I liked this horse as a two-year-old and, as a physical, I thought he would improve during his three-year-old campaign. That has clearly been set back by something.
It’s interesting that James Doyle chooses to ride him over Haatem – who was back to winning ways over in Kentucky last time. So clearly Humidity has been training well.
Trainer Andrew Balding has been flying throughout the year and it wouldn't be a concern seeing one of his own returning from an absence – especially at this sort of level.
I think Humidity’s still of interest. I like the step up in distance and always saw him as a horse that would stay further down the line.
Megan’s Tip: Humidity WIN
Newmarket 13.50 – Zetland Stakes (Group 3)
Drumbeat (4/5 fav) ran encouragingly in the Beresford Stakes last time when up to Group company for the first time. It took him a couple of attempts to get off the mark but he was improving, and it looked like he was learning with each run.
He looks as if he would appreciate the step up in distance and going up to the 10 furlongs could help him find further improvement.
It’s not a big field and there’s a few runners in here that are quite exposed, with a few taking a step up in grade that might not quite be of the same ability as Drumbeat. So I’m going to stick with the Aidan O'Brien runner here.
He’s well supported in the market already, and the market being positive for the Coolmore horses is something you very much should respect as they’re not often wrong.
Currently priced at 4/5, he could well get shorter by the off.
Megan’s Tip: Drumbeat WIN
Newmarket 14.25 – Autumn Stakes (Group 3)
Rock Montreal (11/8 fav) disappointed me slightly in the Flying Scotsman Stakes.
His inexperience got the better of him that day and he just looked like a horse that wasn’t showing a high cruising speed at the seven furlongs – lacking a bit of that tactical pace that was required on that occasion. Therefore he lost a position but ran on really well. So stepping up in distance here is a bonus and is going to help him.
My only slight concern is: is he going to be a little bit lost at Newmarket down the hill and get a bit unbalanced in the dip? But I do see him running on really well when he hits the rising ground.
Nothing against what’s happened so far, but it’s a massive positive that William Buick is switching into the saddle for the first time.
He is a horse with a bright future and is talented. Stepping up in distance to the mile is going to be one step before stepping up even further – I can see him being a 10-furlong horse eventually.
He’s got all the ability and I’m going to stick with Rock Montreal for now. On the nice ground that we look to be getting at Newmarket this weekend, I think he can improve from last time and go one better.
Megan’s Tip: Rock Montreal WIN
Newmarket 15.00 – Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)
I’ve got to go with Desert Castle (8/11 fav) at this distance. Seven furlongs is clearly not a problem for him.
He won very impressively at Doncaster last time. And here the trip is the key. He has a cruising speed and he has gears to go through as well, as we saw when he quickened up in the Champagne Stakes.
I was surprised to see Darkness Falls (15/8) was wanting to drop down two furlongs back down in distance. I know he improved and was impressive last time to win well in Group 1 company, but that was over the mile and one.
If anything, I thought Great Barrier Reef (7/1) was one of those two Ballydoyle runners because he ran extremely well when only just beaten by Push The Boat Out last time. That form was boosted. He was obviously the winner of the Coventry Stakes prior to that, but I thought the seven furlongs could help him improve a little bit further.
But it’s a two-furlong drop in distance for Darkness Falls, so that puts me against him, and it’s Desert Castle with the tactical speed who will take the beating.
Megan’s Tip: Desert Castle WIN
Newmarket 15.40 – Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)
Mountain Road (10/1) is a horse that’s been a big improver for Jim Goldie this season and been a pretty consistent stayer. Jim does so well with these horses – he gets them on a roll and they seem to keep improving.
This horse certainly fits that bill.
The extra distance again can help him; he clearly stays well. Paul Mulrennan is back on board in a big field in a competitive race – there’s plenty to like about Mountain Road’s chances.
Each-way I’m going with Dream On Baby (14/1) for Emmet Mullins.
This could be a seriously well-handicapped horse. She had some pretty strong hurdles form amongst her runs – finishing not far behind the likes of Wodhooh on a couple of occasions.
She’s rated 132 over hurdles roughly, which suggests she could be 10lb well in on the Flat. She won her maiden last time and confidence will be high.
I imagine this is also part of a long-term plan as we haven’t seen her in a while. So she’ll be fit, she’ll be ready.
It’s a big step up competing in handicaps on the Flat for the first time, but clearly Emmet targets these types of handicaps, and when he sends horses over they warrant plenty of respect.
I can see Dream On Baby becoming a market mover as an each-way bet, and she could outrun her current odds.
Megan’s Tip: Mountain Road WIN & Dream On Baby E/W
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation
