Oscars 2025 Betting Tips
The 2025 Academy Awards, or Oscars, look different this year than they do in most years with no dominant movie expected to sweep the board.
Last year, Best Picture winner Oppenheimer won seven awards, the same tally as Everything Everywhere All at Once in 2023, but this time the main categories seem more likely to be shared around a small group of strong candidates.
Emilia Perez claimed the most nominations with 13 but it has been extremely weak in the market since then and is now 66/1 to win Best Picture and favoured to win only a couple of the lower-ranking awards.
Comedy caper Anora now heads the market for the main award, with Conclave and The Brutalist seen as the biggest challengers.
All will be revealed in Hollywood on Sunday night and we've picked out three value bets for the movie world's big night.
Tip 1 – Conclave to win Best Picture @ 11/4
Anora is a tremendous dark comedy centring around a dancer who gets married to the son of a Russian oligarch, with some big laughs as his family attempts to get the marriage annulled.
That does not sound like traditional Best Picture fare, though, and at odds-on prices in an open year it may be better to look for a minor upset.
Second favourite Conclave is much stronger in the market now than it was at the time the nominations were released and it has a couple of factors in its favour.
The story of a British cardinal trying to oversee a complicated Papal election landed the Best Film award at the BAFTAs and has also claimed cast awards at the Critics' Choice Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
Best Picture is the only category that uses a rankings system for voting, and while Anora may get more first-place votes, that movie - and The Brutalist even more so - may also not be to the taste of all voters and could rank lowly on some ballots.
Conclave is unlikely to be bottom of anyone's list and consistent high placings could be enough to edge it ahead in the final count.
The Brutalist, a marathon biopic of brilliant but troubled architect Laszlo Toth with a running time of three hours and 35 minutes, seems to have lost some early momentum in this category.
Conclave, with its fantastic cast led by Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Isabella Rossellini, could be worth putting your faith in to land Best Picture.
Tip 2 – Timothee Chalamet to win Best Actor @ 8/5
Adrien Brody, who plays Laszlo Toth in The Brutalist, gives a top-class performance and would be a worthy winner but, at 2/5, he looks a poor-value favourite.
Timothee Chalamet has enjoyed a successful promotional campaign for his sensational portrayal of a young Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown and he looks worth backing to land the top male acting prize.
Brody won this award in 2003 for his role in The Pianist but he faces a real challenge from the 29-year-old Chalamet, who stars in two of this year's Best Picture nominations as he also plays the lead in Dune: Part Two.
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) and Jamie Foxx (Ray) have won this category for portraying musicians and Chalamet could join the list for his fantastic folk singing after becoming the youngest actor to win the Screen Actors Guild Lead Actor award.
Tip 3 – Fernanda Torres to win Best Actress @ 10/1
Demi Moore is a hot favourite to land the Best Actress award for her role in The Substance, and a likely winner, but if there is a surprise in that category it could come from Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres for her sublime performance in I'm Still Here.
The movie arrived late on the awards scene having not been in the discussion much early on — but it has gained support since earning three nominations including one for Best Picture and Torres has received tremendous critical acclaim.
Torres became a real contender when she picked up the Golden Globe Award for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama and an Oscars triumph cannot be ruled out.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation
