Australian Open Tennis Finals Tips: Alcaraz and Djokovic poised for Titanic tussle
The first Grand Slam titles of the year will be decided at Melbourne Park this weekend as four of the best tennis players on the planet compete for the men's and women's Australian Open crowns.
The women's final is up first on Saturday when Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina do battle in a repeat of the 2023 final, won by Sabalenka. Will the world No. 1 bag a third Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup, or will Rybakina gain her revenge?
The stage is also set for a classic men's final on Sunday, which is a battle of the generations as 10-time champion Novak Djokovic takes aim at a 25th Grand Slam singles final while Carlos Alcaraz attempts to complete the career Grand Slam.
Here are our tips for both the men's and women's finals at Melbourne Park.
Tip 1 - Carlos Alcaraz 3-1 set betting @ 12/5
Djokovic produced a superhuman performance to dethrone Jannik Sinner in the semi-finals on Friday and the Serb will need to find something similar if he's to beat Alcaraz in Sunday's final.
It would be wrong to write off the chances of the greatest player the sport has ever seen, but he had to dig incredibly deep to defeat Sinner in five sets, and, even with a 48-hour turnaround, there has to be a doubt about how much left he has in the tank.
Jakub Mensik's last-16 withdrawal did Djokovic a favour, but he was in the process of being wiped off the court by Lorenzo Musetti in the quarter-finals before the Italian was forced to retire with a muscle tear.
His victory over Sinner, from 2-1 down, was remarkable, but can he do it again?
Djokovic is not without a chance. He leads 5-4 in head-to-head meetings, including a career-defining win in the Paris Olympics in 2024 and a four-set victory over Alcaraz in last year's Australian Open, and he should make sure this is a competitive contest.
Alcaraz produced his own Houdini act in the semi-finals, recovering from a break down in the final set to defeat Alexander Zverev 6-4 7-6 6-7 6-7 7-5 in a five-hour-26-minute epic, and he will also have to draw on his reserves after cramping up badly as that match reached the latter stages.
However, the 22-year-old Spaniard, who is 16 years Djokovic's junior, is more likely to be able to do so and that could tilt the balance in his favour.
Djokovic's sheer will and determination give him a chance, but, on the evidence of the last 12 months, he remains a fading force who could find Alcaraz too strong, as has been the case in three of their last four meetings over the best-of-five format.
At the odds, Alcaraz to win 3-1 looks a worthwhile wager.
Tip 2 - Aryna Sabalenka to win & over 22.5 games @ 2/1 Bet Builder
Sabalenka and Rybakina have both eased into the final down under, so something has to give when the pair meet in an Australian Open final for the second time.
Sabalenka prevailed in three sets three years ago, claiming a Grand Slam breakthrough in the process, and she's gone from strength to strength on the biggest stages since, reaching a further five finals, winning three of them.
However, in Rybakina, she faces a serious rival who has beaten her on six occasions, including in two of their last three meetings - in Cincinnati last summer and Riyadh in the WTA Finals final.
At her best, the Kazakhstani is a match for anyone and one of the few players who can rival Sabalenka for raw power and physicality, and she's been operating at something close to her peak since arriving in Melbourne.
A Grand Slam champion at Wimbledon in 2022, Rybakina can go toe-to-toe with Sabalenka and while the favourite looks likely to have the edge, she could be made to do it the hard way.
Sabelenka won in three sets three years ago, and a repeat of that scenario looks the value call.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change