UFC FIGHT NIGHT BETTING TIPS: BIG ACTION IN THE BIG SMOKE
It’s undefeated streak vs undefeated streak in the main event of UFC Fight Night at The O2 in London starring Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy in a sure-fire number one contender matchup for the featherweight title.
Murphy is not the only fighter representing the UK on this card, with Luke Riley taking on Michael Aswell Jr and, of course, Michael Page in welterweight action against Sam Patterson.
How do we see it going down in the big smoke? We’ve put together three tips across the three fights mentioned to give you plenty to consider.
Tip 1 – Evloev to win by decision @ 4/5
We really need to be giving Movsar Evloev (19-0-0) more flowers considering the consistency of his flawless UFC record.
While it hasn’t been pretty, decision wins over Aljamain Sterling, Arnold Allen, Diego Lopes and Dan Ige have pushed him further and further up the card to this point going into the weekend’s main event.
Lerone Murphy (17-0-1) may have the home advantage here, but it’s hard not to look past how much Aaron Pico was out-wrestling him in his previous fight – putting aside the brutal spinning elbow KO for one second.
Expect Murphy to go for the spectacular throughout this fight as the rounds begin to slip away from him.
The Russian is a far better wrestler than Pico, so unless the Miracle has developed an unbelievable defence in the few months before this fight, we just don’t see this one going any other way.
It may not make for an entertaining watch, but hey, it works.
Tip 2 – Riley or Aswell Jr to win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 5/4
Luke Riley’s (12-0-0) stunning win over Bogdan Grad in the second round earned him a Performance of the Night Bonus last time out, and we’re predicting a repeat…
We just aren’t fully sold on it being Riley to pick up the knockout victory here – not with Michael Aswell Jr picking up a first-round TKO against Lucas Almeida in his own right in his last fight.
In terms of raw numbers, the Texas Kid’s striking numbers are ridiculously impressive too.
There aren’t many fighters in the UFC capable of throwing 9.56 significant strikes a minute; an average bolstered by the 155 landed against Grad in 2024 and the 118 that met their mark in a losing effort to Bolaji Oki.
Comparing these numbers with that of Riley’s – who has only one fight at this level – does make it difficult to compare the two, although his explosiveness does pass the eye test.
It’s just whether or not it’s enough to stop an opponent with a reputation built on toughness.
All we know is someone’s likely to get smoked here should this turn out to be an all out slugfest as advertised.
Tip 3 – Page to win & over 2.5 rounds @ 7/4
The booking of Michael Venom Page (24-3-0), coupled with his general demeanour as of late, suggests this could very well be the last time we see The Mad Titan step into the octagon for the UFC.
Still, that shouldn’t stop MVP from going out on his terms by giving Sam Patterson (14-2-1) a rude awakening in London.
Currently priced at 7/4, a Page win and over 2.5 rounds is our best of the three picks here – mostly due to the fact that Patterson is currently on a four-fight win streak that have each ended in the first round.
Meanwhile, all four of Page’s UFC fights have gone the distance – the last three ending with the Englishman having his arm raised by unanimous decision.
Both have something to prove here but a loss for Page here could be far more damaging to his post-promotion prospects if this is to be his swansong.
We don’t believe he’ll knock his fellow countryman out or anything – taking into account his age and how he tends to fight these days – which is where his wiliness will come into play to see it out for one last decision.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
