UFC 300 - Pereira vs Hill: Main Event & Undercard Tips

UFC 300 is finally here.

Alex Pereira defends his Light Heavyweight title against Jamahal Hill as the main event on this stacked card which boasts must watch match-ups right from the very first fight of the night.

Here are our three best picks from this historic event:

Tip 1 - Alex Pereira to win and over 1.5 rounds 17/10

Both Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill come into this both 6-1 in the UFC with very different journeys.

However, what unites them is power. Four of their wins inside the Octagon have come by KO/TKO, making this an exciting main event.

For Pereira, he has blitzed his way to two undisputed titles in seven fights after only landing in the UFC in 2021 on a mission to chase down long time kickboxing rival, then Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya.

It took the Brazilian only three fights to earn his shot at Adesanya, who he knocked out in the 5th round of their title fight.

Revenge for Adesanya followed with his own knock-out in the rematch, which then saw Pereira move up to Light Heavyweight, where he captured the title in two fights, knocking out former champion Jiří Procházka in the second round at Madison Square Garden last November to claim gold.

For Hill, he is bidding to reclaim the title he never lost after vacating the belt last summer after rupturing his achilles. The 32 year old won the belt in January last year, defeating Pereira’s mentor in MMA, fellow Brazilian Glover Teixeira, adding some extra spice to this main event.

There is no doubt Hill’s longevity at Light Heavyweight could play a part here, however the fact he is making a relatively quick return from serious injury for a five round title fight against someone of Pereira’s calibre is also a concern.

There could be some feeling out there before it gets going, so we are backing Pereira to win and over 1.5 rounds at 17/10 to get some value. If you like Hill for this one, you can get the same bet at 41/20.

Tip 2 - Weili Zhang by Submission - 6/1

Weili Zhang is a heavy favourite coming into this one, but this pick could offer some great value in backing the UFC’s first ever Chinese champion as she faces off against her fellow countrywoman Yan Xiaonan.

Both are 8-2 in the UFC, however Zhang’s resume is far superior. The 34-year-old has been involved in some classics in the Strawweight division in recent years and is now on a three-fight win streak where she has won back and defended her title after losing it in back-to-back defeats to Rose Namajunas in 2021.

Zhang’s game has become more well-rounded and she has added in a lot more grappling in recent times, which she showed in dominating Amanda Lamos last time out and when regaining her title with a crucifix submission of Carla Esparza.

Yan Xiaonan is primarily a kickboxer, so we expect Zhang to really mix things up here. Although Xiaonan knocked out Jessica Andrade last time out, seven of her eight wins have come via decision.

In this all Chinese clash both could well be looking to put a stamp on any victory. With Zhang’s superior all-round skill-set she could well take this to the ground and chase her third UFC submission win.

Tip 3 - Justin Gaethje to Win & Over 3.5 Rounds - 19/10

When it was first announced it took a little while to warm to this BMF title fight, however, the closer it gets to fight night this one is building to potentially be one for the ages.

Max Holloway enters his 28th UFC contest here with 21 wins under his belt. Throughout his career the former Featherweight Champion has been known for his stellar boxing and fantastic chin - he has never been stopped.

Holloway has made one step up to Lightweight before, when he lost a unanimous decision to Dustin Poirier for the interim title in 2019.

Coming into that interim title fight on relatively short notice, Holloway has taken extra time in his preparation here to add on the extra weight properly.

However, he faces a complete wrecking machine in Justin Gaethje.

“The Highlight” KO’d Dustin Poirier last year to become BMF champion, with six of his eight UFC wins coming by KO/TKO.

Gaethje’s only UFC defeats this decade were in his two title opportunities where he lost both by submission to Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov.

This one will take place on the feet and, with his longevity in the division, we are going to side with Gaethje and take +3.5 rounds to add some extra value, given the demonstrated strength of Holloway's chin.