UFC 301 Pantoja vs Erceg: Main Event & Undercard Tips
A battle of the Flyweight's headlines UFC 301 in Brazil this weekend as hometown hero Alexandre Pantoja faces Australian Steve Erceg.
"King of Rio" Jose Aldo returns to the Octagon in the co-main event which is filled with Brazilian talent including the likes of Vitor Petrino and Michel Pereira.
Here are our three best picks from the main card.
TIP 1 - Alexandre Pantoja to win by decision 5/2
Flyweight king Pantoja makes the second defence of his title in front of his home crowd in Rio de Janeiro.
The 34-year-old captured UFC gold last July with a split decision win in a pulsating contest with Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 before defending in a rematch with Brandon Royval at UFC 296 in December, which ended in a unanimous decision.
An all-action, high-pressure fighter, Pantoja is on a five-fight win streak, defeating Manel Kape, Alex Perez, and Royval on his run to the belt.
This run against top contenders has given Erceg, who is only three fights into his UFC tenure, perhaps an unlikely opportunity.
The Australian is ranked ninth in the division and gets the shot following a spectacular one-punch KO of Matt Schnell in March.
At 28 years old, Erceg only debuted in the organisation 10 months ago, with his two other fights being solid decision wins over David Dvořák and Alessandro Costa.
That knockout of Schnell was only the second of his pro career but it is worth noting Pantoja also left the American face planted following an overhand right in the first round of their contest in 2019.
"Astro Boy" brings a solid ground game and rangy boxing to the table. He looks well-rounded in all departments and extremely tough, so we aren't expecting a finish. However, Pantoja's pace over five rounds could see the champ win this one by decision.
Tip 2 - Vitor Petrino by decision - 49/20
The title "gatekeeper" is an unwanted one for a fighter and that's the position Anthony Smith currently finds himself in.
Since his Light Heavyweight title shot ended in a unanimous decision defeat to Jon Jones in 2019, Smith is 5-6 in the UFC and on a run of just one win in his last four fights.
The 35-year-old has lost to Magomed Ankalaev, Johnny Walker and Khalil Rountree Jr, with a second win over Ryan Spann, his only victory in almost three years and since his first encounter with his fellow American.
Still ranked 10th in the division, Smith is now matched against a young and hungry Brazilian in the shape of unbeaten Vitor Petrino (11-0) who is looking to break into the rankings.
The 26-year-old is 4-0 in the UFC, with all coming in the last 13 months. This is set to be Petrino's third fight since November, already securing a solid win this year by unanimous decision over Tyson Pedro.
Brazilian fans will be hoping for a repeat of his brutal check hook KO of Modestas Bukauskas in Sao Paulo last year. This is the only KO/TKO on his UFC record, however his record is littered with knockouts.
There is no doubt Petrino has power in his hands and is well built for the division. For Smith there is every chance he could utilise his vast experience and spoil the party here by making this one ugly. However, we feel Petrino will be just too hot and hand Smith a fifth KO/TKO defeat of his UFC run.
Tip 3 - Michel Pereira - Rounds 1-2 - 1/2
Michel Pereira has earned himself a reputation for being one of the most eye-catching strikers in the UFC.
The Brazilian announced himself with a superb KO of Danny Roberts on his debut back in 2019.
A free-flowing, creative style Pereira dialled in after back-to-back losses in 2020 to now find himself on a seven-fight winning streak.
The 30-year-old is now 2-0 with two first-round finishes campaigning at Middleweight after moving up in weight after his fight with Stephen Thompson was called off last July after he came in three pounds above the contracted limit.
His opponent, Ihor Potieria, also missed weight in his last fight, where he scored a unanimous decision win over Robert Bryczek in February. Prior to that, the Ukrainian was 1-3 in the UFC, being stopped in all of his losses, albeit at Light Heavyweight.
Apart from the potential for this one being fought at a catchweight, the best pick here would be for Pereira to end this within the distance.
You can get odds of 1/2 for the Brazilian to win inside two rounds by any method. However, if you fancy a Pereira KO, TKO or DQ in Round 1, you can back it at 2/1.