UFC 304: Edwards vs Muhammad II Main Event & Undercard Tips
Manchester’s new Co-op Live arena will host a packed out 23,000 crowd as UFC 304 sees two of the UK’s finest defend their titles.
Leon Edwards makes the third defence of his Welterweight title against Belal Muhammad in the main event, while in the co-main Tom Aspinall puts his interim Heavyweight title on the line against American Curtis Blaydes.
Here are our three best picks from the main card.
TIP 1 - Leon Edwards to Win & Over 3.5 Rounds - 22/25
A second round eye poke from Leon Edwards saw the first fight between these two end prematurely in a no contest in March 2021 with Belal Muhammad unable to continue.
Later that year, Edwards secured a statement decision win over Nate Diaz before claiming the Welterweight title with a fifth round head kick knockout of Kamaru Usman in August 2022 when behind on the scorecards.
The 32-year-old backed up that win with a majority decision victory against Usman back in London at UFC 286, before defending against Colby Covington with a unanimous win at UFC 296 in December.
Unbeaten since his first fight with Usman in 2015, Edwards is riding a 12-fight win streak with a style built on fantastic kickboxing, distance management and takedown defence (70%).
Having beaten two of the sport's better known fighters in Usman and Covington, Edwards must now get past Muhammad, an impressive grappler on his own unbeaten run of nine fights.
The 36-year-old has evolved his American High School wrestling in recent times, teaming up with Khabib Nurmagomedov in Dagestan for various training camps.
Muhammad’s striking has evolved too, culminating in a standing TKO of Sean Brady at UFC 280 and a win over albeit compromised Gilbert Burns last time out at UFC 286. In both of these wins Muhammad did not attempt a single takedown.
However, if he is to beat Edwards he must go back to his wrestling core. It feels like the Champion is too sharp on the feet though and over time will start to overawe Muhammad if he can’t keep Edwards down.
Both of these are well versed in going the distance but we aren’t ruling out Edwards being able to get a finish as the fight progresses.
Tip 2 - Tom Aspinall to win by KO/TKO/DQ - Under 1.5 rounds - 8/11
Just like the main event this is a rematch of a fight we’ve seen before with even more of an unsatisfactory ending.
Just 15 seconds into round one of their first fight, Tom Aspinall suffered a serious knee injury leaving Curtis Blaydes with a TKO victory.
What we learnt was that Blaydes was willing to come forward and trade with Aspinall from the bell, which could prove his downfall against an improved and more serious athlete he now finds in Aspinall.
Since that encounter in July 2022, Blaydes is 1-1, losing to Sergei Pavlovich by first round ground and pound before stopping up-and-coming Jailton Almeida last time out in March.
There is no doubt the 33-year-old is Aspinall’s toughest test to date; a skilled wrestler with power in his hands with eight KO/TKO’s from his 13 UFC wins.
The American has lost four times in the UFC. As well as the aforementioned Pavlovich, he also fell to Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou twice, all coming by way of knockout.
That's where Aspinall can flourish here; for someone 6”5, he moves incredibly well and most importantly possess supreme knockout power.
The Salford-born fighter brings a 66% striking accuracy and has double the strikes landed per minute output of Blaydes.
Of Aspinall’s seven UFC wins, five have come via KO/TKO and he could add another one here.
Tip 3 - Gregory Rodrigues to win - 23/20
There are a few fight-of-the-night contenders on this card and this is definitely one.
Britain’s Chirstian Leroy Duncan faces a tough test here against robust Brazilian Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues.
Duncan brings a 3-1 UFC record with all three wins coming by KO/TKO.
The 29-year-old has an attractive free flowing style and is a danger to anyone willing to give him space to land his array of kicks and strikes.
Rodrigues is a strong grappler who has fallen in love with his hands. The 32-year-old has a 6-2 record in the UFC with five KO/TKO wins.
Robocop is on a two-fight streak with finishes over Brad Tavares and Denis Tiuliulin.
Duncan’s grappling has yet to be fully tested in the UFC and he was taken down quite easily by Armen Petrosyan in the third round of their contest.
If Rodrigues can wear him down in the wrestling exchanges in the first two rounds like he did against Tavares last time out then he could win this on the judges scorecards or possibly earn another late finish.