UFC 313 Betting Tips
Alex Pereira looks to continue his dominance of the UFC’s Light Heavyweight division when he faces Magomed Ankalaev in Las Vegas this weekend.
The pair clash in the main event of UFC 313 with the Brazilian looking to secure what would be the fourth defence of his 205lb title.
After Dan Hooker’s injury we have a new co-main event as Justin Gaethje stays on the card to face Rafael Fiziev in a rematch of their wild 2023 encounter.
Tip 1 – Pereira vs Ankalaev - Under 4.5 Total Rounds @ 1/2
Of all of Alex Pereira’s (12-2-0) Light Heavyweight Championship fights so far, Magomed Ankalaev (20-1-1, 1 NC) is perhaps the most dangerous.
Pereira has earned superstardom in the UFC, often stepping in to save big cards for the company, including headlining the historic UFC 300 card last April.
That first round knockout win over Jamahal Hill kicked off the Brazilian's 2024, while he also knocked out Jiri Procházka at UFC 303 in June, before ending the year with a hard-fought TKO of Khalil Rountree Jr at UFC 307 in November.
The win over Procházka was also a rematch of the bout that won him the title in November 2023, when stepping in at late notice to headline UFC 295.
In total Pereira has had 10 UFC fights and stands as a two division champion boasting nine wins, seven by way of knockout.
Ankalaev has had contrasting fortunes in his journey to UFC gold.
The 32-year-old has fought for the vacant 205lb title before, however, a split draw with Jan Błachowicz in late 2022 saw no outright winner and left President Dana White in no mood to book the rematch.
Ankalaev had to start his journey to the belt again and arrives here on the back of a three-round win over Aleksandar Rakić at UFC 308 in October, while a brutal uppercut KO of Johnny Walker kicked off his 2024.
All in all the Dagestan-born fighter boasts an impressive 11-fight win streak, only losing on his UFC debut in 2018 following Paul Craig's dramatic final second submission.
As his birthplace would suggest, he was brought up with a big sambo wrestling pedigree, but has developed into a fine stand-up fighter.
As a former world champion kickboxer, Pereira has always been playing catch-up in the wrestling department, which could be a key tool for Ankalaev here.
Despite his grappling pedigree, Ankalaev does not have a single submission win in either the UFC, or his pro career.
He did use his grappling in the Błachowicz fight after the Polish fighter’s low kicks left him compromised, however, although many thought he won the fight, the style he implemented did not do him any favours in the aftermath.
An interesting sidenote is that Ankalaev takes this fight during Ramadan, the only Muslim fighter to take a title opportunity during this year's holy month.
Ankalaev implementing a grappling heavy approach, or even just mixing the styles well could prove to be too much for Pereira, but equally you can’t write the Brazilian off with his record of finishing fights.
Picking under 4.5 rounds here gives us some good value on either man walking away as champion.
Tip 2 - Gaethje to beat Fiziev @ 5/4
This late notice rematch between Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) and Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0) in the co-main event could steal the show.
Gaethje was due to face Dan Hooker in what was one of the most anticipated bookings of the year to date, however the New Zealander broke his hand two weeks out in a sparring session.
There was little doubt the American would stay on the card, with Fiziev making the most stylistic sense for a late replacement as he makes his first outing since September 2023.
An ACL injury suffered while throwing a kick against Mateusz Gamrot has seen the 32-year-old sidelined since.
Earlier in that year the pair faced off for the first time in London, with Gaethje getting the nod in a close stand-up affair after coming on strong down the stretch.
Gaethje went on to knock out Dustin Poirier for the BMF title in his next fight four months later via a second-round head kick, before losing the belt on UFC 300, suffering a dramatic final second knockout to Max Holloway.
The 36-year-old is known for his fan friendly style, winning fight or performance of the night bonuses (both on two occasions) in 11 of 13 UFC appearances.
The only two fights where he didn’t win a bonus were in his two title fight defeats to Khabib Nurmagomedov (2020) and Charles Oliveira (2022), where he lost both match-ups by submission. Fiziev may be on a two-fight loss streak, but the Kazakhstan fighter had racked up a six-fight pre 2023, which included stoppage wins over the likes of Rafael dos Anjos, Brad Riddell and Renato Moicano.
Where both fighters are at is the big question here.
Gaethje has taken almost 11 months out after his knockout loss to Holloway, while Fiziev steps into the Octagon for the first time in 18 months after a serious knee injury.
Both are phenomenal strikers that have good finish rates, with Gaethje getting 75% of his UFC wins done inside the distance, while Fiziev has finished 50% of his victories.
Gaethje has had the benefit of a full camp and made the adjustments well in the first fight in order to secure victory, which also included the “All American” wrestler's first ever takedown in the UFC.
As an underdog, it may be worth siding with the Highlight to make one last run in the Lightweight division.
Tip 3 - Mauricio Ruffy to Win & Under 1.5 Rounds @ 31/20
The exciting Mauricio Ruffy (11-1-0) takes another step up in class here against veteran King Green (32-16-1 1 NC).
After winning a UFC Contract on the Contender Series, Ruffy racked up a flawless 2-0 record inside the Octagon in 2024.
The Brazilian dismantled Jamie Mullarkey in the first round on home turf at UFC 301 in May before dominating James Llontop over three rounds, with his opponent missing weight for a catchweight bout.
Ruffy has showcased slick striking skills, with his low hand karate stance reminiscent of an early Conor McGregor.
The 28-year-old fights out of the surging Fighting Nerds team and will get a good test here against the seasoned American.
Green was last seen in Manchester at UFC 304 being submitted in the first round by Paddy Pimblett.
The 38-year-old is 3-2 in his last five outings with wins over Jim Miller, Grant Dawson and Tony Ferguson.
His other defeat in this run was to Jalin Turner, with Green suffering a bad first-round knockout in December 2023.
Ruffy’s ceiling looks to be a lot higher than this booking and the styles should clash nicely.
The Brazilian is the pick to get a showcase win here that will see him knocking on the door of the top 15 of the 155lb division.
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Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change