UFC 316 Betting Tips: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
The men's and women’s Bantamweight titles are on the line in two huge match-ups at UFC 316.
Sean O’Malley gets the chance to win back the belt he lost to Merab Dvalishvili last September in the main event.
Meanwhile the co-main event sees two time Judo Olympic Gold Medalist Kayla Harrison looking to add UFC gold to her collection against two time 135lb champion Julianna Pena.
Here are our best bets for Saturday night's MMA card.
Tip 1 – Sean O'Malley to win @ 47/20
As rematches go, Merab Dvalishvili (19-4-0) facing off against Sean O’Malley (17-2-0, 1 NC) presents an interesting puzzle.
Dvalishvili got his hand raised at Sphere last September on a night where the UFC produced a one-off night of theatre as a homage to the history of Mexican combat.
Since then the Georgian has gone on to successfully defend his belt against highly-rated Umar Nurmagomedov at January’s UFC 311, while O’Malley has taken time out for surgery on a torn labrum and made several distinct “lifestyle” changes.
The hip injury reportedly restricted O’Malley in his training in the build up to the first fight, particularly grappling, a key component in trying to stop the cardio machine and combat sambo student Dvalishvili.
Rounds two and four of the first fight clearly showed a shortcoming in the grappling department as O’Malley was controlled on the ground for over three minutes in both rounds, a rarity for Dvalishvili to gain this kind of success.
The 34-year-old usually shoots his takedowns with volume to disrupt the rhythm of his opponents as the numbers of attempts to successfully land takedowns from his last five fights suggest (vs. Nurmagomedov 7/30, vs. O’Malley 6/15, vs. Cejudo 5/11, vs. Yan 11/49 and vs. Aldo 0/16).
It is a tactic that has helped Dvalishvili maintain a 12-fight winning streak inside the Octagon, sitting second behind pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev for active streaks.
Crucially though, O’Malley stayed in the first fight and clearly won the fifth and final round where he visibly hurt Dvalishvili with leap kicks, while he also landed a knee down the middle in what was a close third round.
Indeed, two of the three judges gave round three to O’Malley with 48-47 scorecards.
We have also seen O’Malley win one rematch before, putting on a pure striking clinic in his first defence as champion against Chito Vera, gaining revenge for a 2020 TKO defeat.
O’Malley has six KO’s from 10 UFC wins, with his last and most famous being the counter right hand landed on Aljamain Sterling to take the title with a second-round stoppage in 2023.
If O’Malley has been able to successfully implement the changes he has made then this becomes a really interesting rematch and one he can most definitely win.
Tip 2 – Over 2.5 Total Rounds - Julianna Peña vs Kayla Harrison @ 3/5
In a fight with some bad blood, Julianna Pena (11-5-0) starts her second reign as Bantamweight champion against Kayla Harrison (18-1-0).
The war of words has intensified between the pair ever since Pena secured the title via split decision against Raquel Pennington at October’s UFC 307.
The win marked a return to the sport for the 35-year-old who had not been seen since her 2022 rematch defeat to Amanda Nunes.
A series of injuries has plagued Pena who won the title in late 2021, shocking the world with a second-round submission of Brazilian Nunes.
Harrison has two UFC fights under her belt since signing from the PFL where she was a two-time Grand Prix winner at Lightweight.
Now cutting a further 20 pounds in the UFC, the 34-year-old managed to gain a submission win over former champion Holly Holm on debut followed by a unanimous decision win over Ketlen Vieira in October to secure her shot at the title.
A gold medal winner in Judo at the 2012 and 2016 Olympics, Harrison is a huge favourite in this fight.
However, Pena has shown time and again she is as tough as they come and although she has two submission defeats on her record to Germaine de Randamie and Valentina Shevchenko, she never gave up when losing her championship when dominated by Nunes in their rematch.
The chances are Pena won’t relinquish her belt lightly and this one could well move into the second half of the 25-minute contest.
Tip 3 – Joseph Pyfer to win by Finish @ 59/50
Joe Pyfer (13-3-0) and Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0) finally face off after their initial clash was cancelled hours before it was due to go down in Mexico City in March.
Pyfer cited food poisoning as the reason for his late illness in what would have been his first appearance since a devastating first-round knockout of Marc-André Barriault last June. That was a win that saw the American bounce back from a first UFC defeat against Jack Hermansson months earlier.
The 28-year-old is now 4-1 in the UFC, with all four wins coming via finish and the heavy hitter remains one of the more exciting prospects in the company.
Despite only being 33 years old Gastelum is a 23-fight veteran in the UFC who was last seen defeating Daniel Rodriguez (UD) last June.
However since 2019, Gastelum is 3-6 having mainly campaigned at Middleweight and losing to the likes of Jared Cannonier, Robert Whittaker, Jack Hermansson and Darren Till, while also having famously given Israel Adesanya one of his toughest nights in a classic recently inducted into the hall of fame.
A drop back down to Welterweight saw Gastelum submitted by Sean Brady in late 2023, a division where he started his UFC career when winning The Ultimate Fighter way back in 2013.
Gastelum has never been knocked out, suffering three submission defeats and six by decision so far, which throws down the gauntlet to a serious power puncher like Pyfer.
Pyfer has the credentials in the striking and wrestling department to get this one done either on the feet, or by following in the footsteps of his training partner Sean Brady and securing a submission victory.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change