UFC 317 Betting Tips
2025’s International fight week rolls around with Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira facing off for the vacant Lightweight title at UFC 317.
It marks a changing of the guard with Islam Makhachev leaving the division to seek a new challenge at Welterweight, while Topuria, who vacated his Featherweight strap earlier in the year to move to 155lbs, gets an immediate title opportunity.
The men's Flyweight title is on the line in the co-main event as Alexandre Pantoja takes on Kai Kara-France.
Here are our best bets for Saturday night's MMA card.
Tip 1 – Ilia Topuria to Win & Under 2.5 Rounds @ 7/10
Ilia Topuria (16-0-0) and Charles Oliveira (35-10-0, 1 NC) compete in what looks set to be a thrilling match-up.
Topuria secured an immediate title challenge after a two-fight run as Featherweight champion, where he knocked out all time 145lb greats Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski back-to-back.
After an unbeaten six-fight run to the belt, the 28-year-old stopped Volkanovski with a second round right hook in February 2024, before backing that up with a third-round finish of Holloway in October.
Holloway had never even been knocked down in his 29 fight UFC career before the left hook of Topuria landed, leaving the Spanish fighter able to secure the finish with ground strikes.
Topuria has six stoppages from his eight UFC wins, including a face plant KO of Jai Herbert and a submission of Bryce Mitchell.
Interestingly, the fight with Herbert was at 155lb, with Topuria suffering an early knockdown, before showing devastating power when walking the Englishman down in the second round.
Oliveira previously held the Lightweight title after knocking out Michael Chandler for the vacant belt in 2021.
A successful defence against Dustin Poirier (R2, Sub) followed before the Brazilian was stripped of the title after failing to make weight against Justin Gaethje, a fight he went on to win by first round submission.
Oliveira lost another shot at the vacant title against Islam Makhachev via second round submission in his next fight and has since gone 2-1 in trying to work his way back to the title.
The now 35-year-old has wins over Michael Chandler (UD) and Beneil Dariush (R1, TKO) with a close split decision defeat to Arman Tsarukyan (SD) sandwiched between.
Oliveira holds the record for most UFC finishes (20), submission victories (16) and performance bonuses (20), but he comes up against an equally devastating finisher in Topuria who has only seen the final bell twice in 16 pro fights.
The Brazilian showed a more patient approach in November's rematch with Michael Chandler but the Chute Boxe fighter has always had a walk forward, hittable style.
It's hard not to see Topuria carrying his strength and power to his new weight class, and with his supreme boxing and grappling skills will likely get an opening to finish the fight before the championship rounds.
Tip 2 – Over 2.5 Total Rounds - (C) Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France @ 21/50
Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) and Kai Kara-France (25-11-0) meet again in very different circumstances, nine years on from their initial match-up on The Ultimate Fighter TV show.
Pantoja won that two round contest back in 2016 with the pair going on to have successful careers inside the Octagon.
The Brazilian captured the belt from fellow TUF season 26 alumni Brandon Moreno in 2023 and has gone on to defend against Brandon Royval (UD), Steve Erceg (UD) and Kai Asakura (R2, Sub).
The 35-year-old’s last win was against Asakura, landing a rear-naked-choke on the Japanese superstar, who came over from rival promotion RIZIN, in the second round in December.
It leaves Pantoja with a 13-3 record in the UFC with seven stoppages, including five by submission.
Kara-France is 12 fights deep into his UFC career with an 8-4 record. The New Zealander was last seen knocking out Steve Erceg in the first round last August, ending what was a two fight losing skid against Amir Albazi and in a rematch with Brandon Moreno.
The defeat to Moreno was for the interim title, with Kara-France suffering a third round TKO following a perfect liver kick in a round where he had come on strong.
Kara-France puts on an unrelenting pace but crucially brings an 88% takedown defence here and has three UFC knockouts on his record, an impressive 12 overall at Flyweight.
Pantoja is also known for his gas tank, unusual striking style and pressure, while it is worth noting that he has never been finished.
This should be a fun match-up with the championship rounds likely needed to decide a winner.
Tip 3 – Payton Talbott to win @ 13/10
As underdog picks go, Payton Talbott (9-1-0) offers some interesting value when he gets into the Octagon with Diego Lima (14-1-0) this weekend.
Talbott had built huge hype after winning his first three UFC contests by finish, submitting Nick Aguirre on debut (R3) before performance bonus knockouts of Cameron Saaiman (R2) and Yanis Ghemmouri (R1).
However, the 26-year-old came unstuck in his last outing when, as a 1/10 favourite, he was outgrappled by veteran Raoni Barcelos.
It was a rough first round in particular for Talbott, who grew into the fight but ultimately lost all three rounds.
Lima is 2-0 in the UFC after signing from OKTAGON, where he won the Bantamweight title in his final fight with the European promotion.
A debut submission of Muhammad Naimov (R3) was followed up by a victory over Miles Johns (UD) last time out in December.
Lima was able to outpoint the American with his bouncing striking style, however Johns was able to land some big shots.
If Talbott can keep the fight standing, Lima’s style could well bring out the best in his striking and could be worth chancing as an underdog.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change