CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PLAY-OFF TIPS: ALL ACTION SECOND LEGS INCOMING
It’s time for the Champions League knockout phase play-off second legs; eight games to determine who punches their ticket to the last 16 and a potential date with immortality on Europe’s grandest stage.
Inter vs Bodo/Glimt, Newcastle vs Qarabag and Real Madrid vs Benfica all star in this week’s highly-anticipated games – and our show-stopping Champions League tips for the occasion…
Tip 1 – Inter under 2.5 goals vs Bodo/Glimt @ 23/20
Beating Bodo/Glimt in club football’s most prestigious competition isn’t as straightforward as it sounds – as Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and now Inter have found out first-hand.
Last week’s emphatic 3-1 win over the three-time European champions stands as their biggest giant-killing yet, leaving them just one game away from becoming the first Norwegian side to progress from a knockout tie since Lillestrom in 1987-88.
The San Siro heat is enough to melt most teams but we’re backing Kjetil Knutsen’s men to stand firm and shut the current Serie A leaders out.
The Nerazzurri have only won by two or more goals in six of their 52 matches in the knockout stages and have never won a game by three or more. In Europe this season, they’ve also looked a step below last year’s final-reaching level.
Try as they may to reduce the deficit, losing Lautaro Martinez – Inter’s current top scorer in all competitions – to injury is a massive blow and makes an already difficult task that much harder.
Bodo have already shown they can be a tough visitor after the Atletico game, something Cristian Chivu’s Serie A league leaders will find out soon enough.
Tip 2 – Anthony Gordon to score anytime @ EVS
Anthony Gordon’s four goals against Qarabag in the first leg not only earned him the match ball but also membership in a highly exclusive club that includes Robert Lewandowski and Lionel Messi.
The club? Accessible to any players who score four goals in a single knockout tie – a feat accomplished by only four other players, the two mentioned alongside Mario Gomez and Josep Illic.
The England international’s haul has put the Magpies firmly in the driving seat ahead of the second leg at St James’ Park, a situation that often brings rotation and minutes for fringe players.
Only we don’t expect Eddie Howe to take his foot off the pedal despite holding a 6-1 advantage, especially with European qualification looking increasingly unlikely as the 11th-best team in the Premier League currently.
Gordon is now the second-highest scorer in the competition with 10 – three fewer than current Golden Boot frontrunner Kylian Mbappe.
With how easy Newcastle made it look in the first leg, we expect Gordon to get in on the action once again.
Tip 3 – Over 5.5 cards in Real Madrid vs Benfica @ 21/20
Four cards were shown at the Estadio da Luz last time out and, after what went down last week, it's difficult not to see the return leg as anything but more of the same but more emotional and with slightly more bookings.
There were six yellow cards in Benfica’s dramatic late win over Los Blancos on the final day of the league phase alone – with Raul Asencio and Rodrygo going one step further and receiving their marching orders in injury time.
Benfica aside, it’s been a tumultuous Champions League campaign all round for Alvaro Arbeloa’s superstars in general, as seen in their overall lack of discipline and tendency for picking up cards.
They’ve already picked up 20 yellows and three reds – the most of any other team going into what is sure to be another incredible tense and heated game.
It’s one the referee will struggle to keep under control, so expect plenty of yellows once again.
The same colour Jose Mourinho saw twice last week, dashing any hope of a highly-anticipated return to the Bernabeu, famously coaching the side for three years from 2010 to 2013.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change.
