EFL Cup Quarter-finals Tips: Why There’s Value in Underdogs
Wembley is in sight for the remaining eight sides in the EFL Cup.
League One Cardiff City are the sole representative from outside the top flight and have a big task on their hands when they take on Chelsea.
Holders Newcastle, meanwhile, are at home to Fulham, Manchester City face Brentford at the Etihad and Arsenal play Crystal Palace in the final tie of the round next week.
We’ve scoured the fixture list for three of the best bets for the quarter-finals…
Tip 1 – Cardiff vs Chelsea BTTS @ 11/10
Flying high in League One, table-toppers Cardiff City welcome Chelsea to South Wales for the first of the quarter-finals.
It could well be a tricky encounter for Enzo Maresca’s men.
The Bluebirds have scored an impressive 26 goals in eight home league games this season – drawing a blank only once – while they have scored at least twice in all of their EFL Cup outings so far, including at Premier League side Burnley.
Chelsea have played just two games in this competition to get to the quarter-final stage but have shipped four goals altogether in wins over Lincoln City and Wolves.
These two haven’t met in the EFL Cup since 1986 but, more recently, have met in the Premier League and FA Cup. Of those five meetings, both teams have scored in all of them, with Chelsea winning all three home games 4-1 and both away fixtures 2-1.
In fact the last time Cardiff beat the Blues at all was that fixture in 1986, running out 2-1 winners, while 1983 was the last time a team failed to score in a match between these two.
Four of the last five league matches at the Cardiff City Stadium this term have seen both teams find the net and the home side will surely fancy their chances of notching, even if a semi-final spot might just be a step too far.
As such, odds of 11/10 for both teams to score stacks appeal here.
Tip 2 – Manchester City HT/FT vs Brentford @ Evens
Manchester City find themselves just two points off the top of the Premier League.
Pep Guardiola’s side are unbeaten domestically at home since August and face a Brentford side here with just one Premier League away win.
However, they do have two in this competition.
City have won the EFL Cup eight times, including four times in a row from 2018 to 2021, though that latter final remains their last success.
Recent history suggests they have a strong chance of progressing to the last four here: they’ve won their last five against the Bees and the west Londoners have only ever been further than this stage once, in 2020/21 when they fell to Spurs in the semi-finals.
The Citizens have won their last four in the league and have been leading at half-time in all of them, too.
Evens for Manchester City half-time/full-time is a good price in what could be a comfortable evening for the home side.
Guardiola may ring the changes but City’s squad depth is such that they are unlikely to encounter any issues en route to yet another semi-final.
Tip 3 – Fulham to beat Newcastle @ 18/5
It’s been a difficult week for Newcastle.
Letting a lead slip away at Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League was tough – but losing at Sunderland to an own goal from their record signing was another level.
Fulham will be out to compound the Magpies’ misery on Wednesday night and make the semi-finals for the first time since 2001/02.
It won’t be easy. Newcastle are the defending champions and have already beaten Fulham once this season, 2-1 on this ground in the Premier League.
The Cottagers had won the two prior meetings though, one of which was on Tyneside, and did look impressive on Saturday in their 3-2 win at Burnley.
Eddie Howe’s side have home advantage but it could be an exceedingly nervy St James’ Park after the derby loss.
Magpies talisman Nick Woltemade has just one goal at the right end domestically since October and Fulham have won five of their last eight, including two in a row away from home.
And they have Harry Wilson in inspired form. The Welshman has seven goals and four assists in his last eight games for club and country, including a goal and two assists at Turf Moor on Premier League Matchday 16.
It’s a tough place to go and 18/5 odds for an away win in 90 minutes are long… but plausible.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
