Golden Goals Matchday 26: Arsenal & Manchester City in five-goal thrillers

Matchday 25 turned up the heat in the Premier League title race. Both Liverpool and Arsenal showed their mettle by dispatching Brentford and Burnley with ease, while Manchester City stumbled against Chelsea for the second time this campaign.

City responded with a 1-0 at home to Brentford on Tuesday night, making it 16 games unbeaten in all competitions since early December and leaving the title race as tight as ever.

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Read on to see what’s in store for Matchday 26…

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

A lot was made of Aston Villa’s formidable home record to begin the campaign but the Villans have not enjoyed such home comforts in their last two outings at Villa Park.

Firstly, Newcastle came to the Midlands and slotted three into Emiliano Martinez’s net before Manchester United made a huge dent in Villa’s top-four hopes with a late Scott McTominay winner a fortnight ago.

Add in Chelsea’s 3-0 victory in the FA Cup and Sheffield United’s point just before Christmas and it means Unai Emery’s men have only registered one home victory in their last five attempts across all competitions after losing just once competitively there since February 25th last year.

They did look back to form this past weekend with an impressive victory over Fulham spearheaded by the inspired Ollie Watkins. The Englishman grabbed a brace at Craven Cottage and took his tally to 13 goals for the season, which nestles him in behind Erling Haaland, Mohamed Salah, and Dominic Solanke, the latter of whom joined Watkins in our team of the week.

He will be eyeing up the scoresheet once again against Nottingham Forest. Nuno Espirito Santo’s men carry the joint-fifth-worst defence in the league with 44 goals conceded and have conceded almost nine goals over their expected total in this campaign so far.

Forest, though, can feel buoyed by the form of Callum Hudson-Odoi. The former Chelsea man has now found the net in three consecutive outings and his current tally of four Premier League goals is the most prolific of his top-flight career.

Villa should return to form in this one. Nottingham Forest do not travel well – with only two wins away from the City Ground this campaign – so it seems a safe bet that Watkins will once again be the catalyst for a successful Saturday for the Villans.

Prediction: Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest

Brighton vs Everton

The season-long question remains: which Brighton is going to show up on Saturday afternoon? Will it be the team that dispatched five goals past Sheffield United for the second time this month or the side that lost 4-0 to Luton only three games ago?

You never truly know with Roberto De Zerbi and co. – and it’s why Premier League fans have fallen in love with them. Win, lose, or draw it will be an entertaining game when the Seagulls take to the pitch.

It all comes from De Zerbi’s philosophy of building from the back and it has made Brighton one of the most potent attacks in the entire division.

Lewis Dunk and Jan Paul Van Hecke produce the most successful passes by central defenders per 90 minutes. Pascal Groß lands within the top five for progressive passes in the entire league, so it’s always front-foot thinking from Brighton.

However, their playing out from the back also means they have notched the third-most errors that have led to shots on goal this season (14) with the aforementioned Van Hecke being the most culpable individually with four.

Brighton’s patient passing build-up isn’t for everybody and certainly not for Sean Dyche’s Everton. The Toffees average the second-lowest possession per game (39.4%) in the Premier League with the likes of Luton Town and Burnley averaging more.

Despite their lack of possession, Everton have still managed to create a lorryload of chances this season – but they just haven’t been clinical enough. They are by far the least-efficient team in the attacking third in the league with more than 10 fewer goals scored than expected.

This wasteful nature hasn’t helped them in their bid for survival and we don’t see it helping them this weekend. Brighton are more generous defensively than most but their offensive output should get them over the line. The Seagulls win in this one.

Prediction: Brighton 2-0 Everton

Crystal Palace vs Burnley

Is it a little too late for Burnley to consider this one a six-pointer?

The Clarets looked despondent on Matchday 25 as they fell to a second drubbing in as many weeks, following up 3-1 defeat to Liverpool with a 5-0 smashing at the hands of Arsenal. They are, admittedly, two of the Premier League’s best but it’s tough to see any sign of life from the Lancashire outfit.

Last weekend’s result took them to 17 goals conceded over the last six games – only Sheffield United can hold a candle to that unwanted record with 18.

Despite Vincent Kompany’s attacking philosophy, Burnley are the second-lowest scorers and hold the second-lowest expected goals tally in the Premier League this season.

Crystal Palace themselves haven’t had a regular goalscorer this year but they’ll be hoping new manager Oliver Glasner can strike a tune out of the offensive-minded players in the Eagles squad.

The former Eintracht Frankfurt boss will have to do it without the talismanic Michael Olise who is set for another spell on the sidelines with a hamstring injury suffered against Brighton. The midfielder has averaged almost exactly a goal contribution per 90 minutes he’s played this campaign, a record only topped by Erling Haaland, Mohamed Salah and Diogo Jota.

There will be a fresh feeling around Selhurst Park with a new man in the dugout and it may very well pay dividends for the Eagles. It feels like the perfect first game for Glasner – he will get off to a winning start against a limp Burnley side.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 2-0 Burnley

Manchester United vs Fulham

They have burnt their fans before… but are Manchester United back to their best?

The Red Devils extended their winning run to five straight across all competitions last time out against Luton and lifted themselves to within five points of the top four.

Even better, they have a consistent performer in the opposition's box with Danish forward Rasmus Hojlund. It may have taken him a while but the 21-year-old forward is hitting his stride in England’s top division with seven goals in his last six league matches, becoming the youngest player to score in six consecutive Premier League matches.

Hojlund, however, has been ruled out of Saturday's match with another striker, in opposing colours, potentially ready to steal the limelight instead.

Rodrigo Muniz may not be getting the headlines but Fulham’s rejuvenated forward has netted four goals in his last three games and has become the Cottagers’ joint-second-highest goalscorer in only six starts.

It will take a heroic effort from Muniz and co. to turn Fulham’s away form around this season and take points off the streaking Manchester United though. Marco Silva’s side are 11 games without a win on the road and have only taken a Premier League-lowest 24% of their points tally on their travels.

Manchester United should win this one and go perfect in February, making it the first time they will have won five games out of five in a month since January 2009.

Prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Fulham

Bournemouth vs Manchester City

Manchester City finally faltered on Matchday 25 with a dramatic 1-1 draw with Chelsea.

The blue side of Manchester had been on a tear since returning from the Club World Cup, with nine consecutive wins across all competitions before Mauricio Pochettino’s style stole a point at the Etihad.

In typical City fashion, they bounced back in midweek with a solid 1-0 win over Brentford, with Erling Haaland finally scoring against the Bees. The Norwegian frontman has now netted against every single team that he has faced in the Premier League after only two seasons in England.

Despite having arguably the best number nine in world football, Pep Guardiola’s men have looked wasteful rather than ruthless in the last two outings.

Across the last two games, City have taken 56 shots and only found the back of the net twice, underperforming their xG in both outings. It feels like a City smashing is on the way… but will it be Bournemouth who bear the brunt?

History suggests it could be. The South Coast outfit have lost the last three matches against the Citizens by an aggregate of 14-2 and have never beaten City, carrying into this one - a record of 18 losses and two draws.

However, the Cherries aren’t as ripe for the picking under Andoni Iraola as they have been in the past. After a shaky start, the Spaniard has turned things around at the Vitality Stadium and guided them into the haven of mid-table.

They are on a poor run at the moment though – their last victory came on Boxing Day –so we can only see an away win here. Unfortunately for Bournemouth, we also reckon the ruthless side of City will return… it could get ugly.

Prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 4 Manchester City

Arsenal vs Newcastle

The Gunners are, quite simply, firing on all cylinders in the Premier League.

It turns out their 6-0 victory against West Ham at the Olympic Stadium a fortnight ago was only the tip of the iceberg as a 5-0 win over Burnley at Turf Moor followed.

With those blowout victories, Mikel Arteta’s team continued their 100% winning record in the Premier League since the turn of the year, winning all five games by an aggregate of 21-2.

Almost a third of those 21 goals have come from Bukayo Saka. The English winger has now netted in his last four matches for Arsenal and has registered a goal contribution across his last six fixtures.

He is not carrying the attacking load on his own, though. Leandro Trossard, in particular, has impressed during Arsenal’s relentless run in 2024 with four goals in his last five appearances.

Newcastle themselves are a glutton for goals at the moment – at both ends. The Magpies are the league’s fourth-highest goalscorers and have managed two or more goals in eight consecutive games across all competitions.

Unfortunately for Eddie Howe, his men have not been able to keep the ball out of the net at the other end of the pitch. Their porous backline has conceded 16 goals in their last six Premier League fixtures which is only better than both Burnley and Sheffield United.

Away from the result itself, there could be some value in over 3.5 goals at 59/50 with BetMGM.

Overall, Arsenal should come out on top in a goal-heavy affair and get revenge on the team that handed them their first Premier League loss of the season back in November.

Prediction: Arsenal 3-2 Newcastle

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