Golden Goals Matchday 30: Title Race Clash As Arsenal Meet Manchester City
Right then, where were we?
Oh that’s right - in the midst of one of the most exciting title races in a generation. It is neck-and-neck-and-neck at the top of the table between Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City.
And what a way to dive back into the action than a clash between two of them - Manchester City and Arsenal. It is shaping up to be an absolute corker and is arguably the game of the season so far.
There’s plenty of other action to follow, too so we have dusted off the form book after its time on the top shelf during the international break and attempted to pick out six correct scores for Golden Goals.
Remember, if you can pick the six correct scorelines you could win up to £2 million.
Chelsea vs Burnley
Form (all competitions)
Chelsea: WWDWL
Burnley: WDLLL
Is Mauricio Pochettino turning the Chelsea tanker?
Since losing to Liverpool in the League Cup final, they have won three of their previous four games in all competitions, and are in the midst of another deep cup run after a quarter-final win over Leicester. It’s now the sixth time in the last eight seasons that Chelsea have reached at least the semi-finals of the FA Cup.
Scratch the surface, though, and it is clear discontent remains rife among the Chelsea fanbase. You only have to see the reaction to Raheem Sterling’s missed penalty and free kick attempt to understand the apathy many Blues’ fans hold towards even the most senior playing staff at Chelsea.
The star signing of Todd Boehly’s dynasty that began last season, Sterling has endured a torrid time in front of goal. Indeed, this season, he ranks second most big chances at 14 but he is also second for most big chances missed with 10, while he has the ninth poorest conversion rate in the Chelsea squad, scoring with just 13.6% of his attempts.
One man’s desert is another’s oasis though - and Cole Palmer is drinking it all in. He is way out in front for the Blues this season.
Meanwhile, Burnley are showing some green shoots of recovery - a creditable draw with West Ham was followed up by a convincing win over Brentford before the international break.
They still need to fix some issues - they are second from bottom in the standings for goals scored (29) and have conceded the second-highest number of goals (63), while they also have issues with keeping 11 players on the pitch. Along with Liverpool, they are top of the red card standings having seen five players dismissed over the course of the campaign.
Hard to see any result other than a Chelsea win, here.
Prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Burnley
Sheffield United vs Fulham
Form (all competitions)
Sheffield United: DLLLW
Fulham: WLWWL
Just when it looks like the Blades were sharpening up, they get blunted. After taking a two goal lead away to Bournemouth before the international break, the Cherries plucked any hopes of a precious three points away from Chris Wilder and his charges with a devastating last minute equaliser.
They have actually performed better on the road than at home, with their recent record at Bramall Lane making for painful reading. In their previous three Premier League matches at home, they have lost by an aggregate score of 16-0 - with two 5-0 defeats to Aston Villa and Brighton before a 6-0 loss to Arsenal. It gets worse, They have conceded 4.6 goals per game on average across their last five Premier League home matches.
In many ways, there couldn’t be a worse time to play an in-form Fulham outfit, who can count Manchester United, Brighton, and Tottenham as teams they have overcome in a run of three wins in four.
The hype machine is starting to whir behind the exciting Rodrigo Muniz, who, with two goals in the 3-0 win over Spurs before the international break, became the first Fulham player to score in four consecutive Premier League home matches. He’s worth keeping an eye on.
Also look out for American full-back Antonee Robinson - he has six assists from open play in the league this season, the joint-most from open play by a defender. Hard to see how the Blades turn around an absolutely awful run of home form against this vibrant and exciting Fulham team.
Away win.
Prediction: Sheffield United 0-3 Fulham
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace
Form (all competitions)
Nottingham Forest: DLLLL
Crystal Palace: WDLWD
The goals have dried up on the River Trent. After a run of six in three games, they have now just found the net once in four matches across all competitions.
The malaise is making for particularly tough watching for the raucous fans that pour into the City Ground - Forest have the second poorest Expected Goal (xG) ranking when playing at home (1.07 per 90 minutes). Only Sheffield United (0.57) are creating fewer clear cut chances.
Crystal Palace are just getting to grips with their new manager Oliver Glasner - but the initial signs are promising.
One of the urgent points of order for Glasner and his coaching staff is to increase their impact from setpieces - the Eagles are the most underperforming attacking team from setpieces, with just three goals all season from corners and free kicks, despite registering 106 shots and an xG of 8.36 from them.
Two of those set piece strikes have come in the first three matches under Glasner - can they continue improving in this regard against a leaky Nottingham Forest?
It’s a close one to call - we’ll go with a score draw.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Crystal Palace
Tottenham vs Luton
Form (all competitions)
Tottenham: WLWWL
Luton: DLDLL
Just when it looked like the Lilywhites were going to creep into the top four, there was a bang back down to earth.
For the first time in more than a year, Tottenham failed to score in a league game. You have to go all the way back to March 2023 and a 1-0 defeat away to Wolves to find a Spurs front line blunted like this.
Despite all the positives around Spurs’ forward play, there remains definite concerns about the back line. They have kept just two clean sheets in 19 attempts and are conceding plenty of chances, as you can see in the graph below:
Meanwhile, despite their run of poor results (they have one win in 10 games), Luton are winning hearts and minds for their free-scoring, attacking style of play. They have bagged 42 goals in the league this season, more than any of the bottom eight sides in the division.
Part of the issue is they tend to concede the first goal - since they swept aside Brighton 4-0, they have taken the lead just once.
They also have the scars of Bournemouth fresh on their minds - two weeks ago, they went 3-0 up away to the Cherries, before succumbing 4-3 to suffer one of the most epic comeback defeats in recent times.
If Tottenham get going, this could be anything. We’re predicting a heavy home win.
Prediction: Tottenham 4-0 Luton
Liverpool vs Brighton
Form (all competitions)
Liverpool: LWDWW
Brighton: WWLLL
Despite a devastating last minute defeat to Manchester United in the FA Cup before the international break, Liverpool are still on course for an historic treble.
They are creating chances by the bucket load in league games. They average a mammoth 19.1 shots per 90 minutes - the next best is Manchester City (17.8), while the xG is also topping the league table at 2.24 per 90 minutes.
A run of eight wins in 10 league games makes for very impressive reading, and with their two title rivals playing each other in the later game on Sunday, this represents a very good chance to climb to the top of the table.
But Brighton will not be a simple task.
They are finally showing some defensive resilience - the clean sheet against Roma last week was the first time they have kept back-to-back shutouts since May 2023.
Now they are out of Europe, all focus will be on qualifying for European competition next year.
This fixture has produced 16 goals in the previous four meetings, with Liverpool failing to win any of them. Can the Seagulls maintain the recent hold they have over the Reds?
We think this could be honours even. Action-packed score draw.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Brighton
Manchester City vs Arsenal
Manchester City: WDWWW
Arsenal: WWWWL
Has there been a bigger game between these two teams since, checks notes, this time last year? While this fixture was seen as a route back into the title race for Arsenal in the previous campaign, this time the Gunners sit on top of the pile.
There may just be one point in it, but if the North London side can fashion a win at the Etihad, they will stretch their lead to four, and suddenly, the prospect of a first title in nearly 20 years is in the reckoning.
The bad news? Their recent record away to Manchester City is borderline embarrassing - they have lost six straight games in all competitions and it’s approaching nearly ten years since they last managed to win there - (January 2015).
Meanwhile, the defending champions have won 17 of their last 19 games in all competitions and are in that dangerous groove. The eye is particularly drawn to Phil Foden - the gifted England international has been in imperious form, with 28 goal contributions in 41 appearances in all competitions this season.
There’s something about the way Arsenal are playing right now that makes us think they can spring a surprise.
We will go with an away win.
Prediction: Manchester City 1-2 Arsenal
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