UFC 299: O'Malley vs Vera II Betting Tips

Sean O’Malley makes the first defence of his Bantamweight title at UFC 299 as he faces Chito Vera in a rematch four years in the making.

The card in Miami is stacked from top to bottom with Dustin Poirier facing Benoit Saint Denis in the co-main event.

Here are our three best picks from a stacked Main Card.

Tip 1 - Sean O'Malley Round 4, 5, or by Decision @ 5/6

Sean O’Malley’s knockout of Aljamain Sterling to become Bantamweight Champion back at UFC 292 in August finally cemented the hype around Sugar’s superstar status.

The win was Sterling’s first defeat in six years and only the second time he had been stopped in his career. It was the type of triumph that made you feel that O’Malley is only going to get better as champion.

The only real blot on Sugar’s copy book in his career to date was his defeat to Chito Vera back at UFC 252 in 2020, where the Ecuadorian’s leg kick damaged O'Malley's peroneal nerve leaving him barely able to stand, subsequently earning Vera a TKO victory.

This rematch is personal for both, O’Malley feeling that the ‘freak injury’ he suffered was Chito’s only path to victory, while Vera wants to rubber stamp the 'W' that already sits next to his name.

Vera is 5-2 since his win over Sugar, adding the likes of Pedro Munhoz, Dominick Cruz and Franke Edgar to his resume, but lost what looked like potential title eliminators against Jose Aldo and Cory Sandhagen.

Chito is a notorious slow starter and generally grows into fights. The Ecuadorian is extremely durable and has never been stopped, but it must be noted he has only been tested over the five round distance twice.

Given his rise, spectacular KO of Sterling and the improvements in his movement, you'd have to back O’Malley as his heavy favouritism in the market suggests you should.

If O’Malley is to earn another KO here it feels like he will have to chip away at Vera and wait for an opportunity later in the fight, particularly if Chito has to chase the win if he does start slowly. If no KO comes, a points win for O’Malley could well be on the cards.

Tip 2 - Dustin Poirier vs Benoit Saint Denis - Any Fighter to win by KO, TKO or DQ 27/20

Occasionally the complete unknowns between two fighters make the build-up all the more intriguing, and that’s what we get here as #3-ranked Lightweight Dustin Poirier takes on #12-ranked Benoit Saint Denis.

Ranked consistently at Lightweight for the past eight years, we feel we know everything we need to know about Poirier. On Saturday he will become one of only 13 fighters to make 30 UFC appearances having fought some of the best to ever do it, with coveted wins over the likes of Conor McGregor, Eddie Alvarez and in his first meeting with Justin Gaethje.

The only thing Poirier’s CV is shy of is a title, with two failed attempts at UFC gold ending the same way - via rear naked chokes to Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov. Even the BMF title evaded him, losing a rematch with Justin Gaethje back in July via a head kick knockout.

This co-main event is being contested over five rounds at the request of Poirier, with this bout his tenth scheduled for the full 25 minute distance. Saint Denis has yet to be tested in championship rounds. In fact, he has only gone the full three rounds in the UFC once - in a points defeat on his debut at short notice at Welterweight.

His five fights so far at Lightweight have resulted in five finishes, with 3 KO’s and 2 submissions. In November Saint Denis coldly dispatched Matt Frevola with a devastating head kick knockout, but is the Frenchman ready to jump from Frevola to Poirier?

There is every chance the freshness and brutality of Saint Denis could overwhelm the now 35 year old Poirier, who himself suffered a head kick knockout defeat 7 months ago.

As seen in last month's Featherweight main event, when Alexander Volkanovski lost his title to Ilia Topuria, there are certain fighters you don’t want to be facing after suffering a knockout in your previous fight. Topuria was that man for Volkanovski and Saint Denis feels like an equally tough assignment for Poirier to avoid back-to-back KO’s.

Equally, we can’t overlook the experience and doggedness of Poirier. He has been counted out before yet still remains one of the best on the planet. Win or lose Poirier is generally all-action and more than capable of finding a way through Saint Denis’ carnage and beating a contender who is fighting at the elite level for the first time.

That’s why we aren’t picking a winner here and instead banking on this one not going the distance and ending in a KO. We are going to sit back and enjoy what looks set to be an all-out war, no matter who has the arm raised at the end.

Tip 3 - Michael Page by KO, TKO or DQ 5/1

One of the most unorthodox strikers in the game finally lands in the UFC this weekend as Michael ‘Venom’ Page makes his debut.

To quote the phrase coined by fellow ex-Bellator star Michael Chandler ahead of his UFC debut “I’m here for a good time, not a long time” and judging by his comments so far, Page’s mantra appears to be the same as he prepares to enter the Octagon against Kevin Holland.

Holland is 12-7-1 in the UFC and is rarely in boring fights. Now ranked at #13, ‘Trailblazer’ has lost three of his last five outings, including two against elite strikers Jack Della Maddalena and Stephen Thompson.

This is where Page has to capitalize with his supreme kickboxing ability. The now 36-year-old has a supreme KO highlight reel and, if Kevin Holland remains as open as he has been, Venom could produce some magic on the night.

However, many will argue that Page’s 21-2 record in Bellator doesn’t stack up in the UFC, but the London fighter does have some good wins on his record against the likes of Douglas Lima and Paul Daley. The fact that almost 60% of his wins have come by KO is another exciting proposition.

There is no doubt Page must get to work quickly if he is to make a push for an all-UK title fight with Leon Edwards and that starts with making a statement against Holland this weekend.

This booking feels designed for Page to impress and, as a betting underdog, the Londoner has a good shot at scoring a KO at a more than decent price.