UFC 328 BETTING TIPS: CHIMAEV TO DEFEND MIDDLEWEIGHT CROWN & STREAK
UFC 328 stands as possibly the biggest card of the year so far with not one but two blockbuster title fights on the docket: Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland in the main event, supported by Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira in the co-main.
UFC 328: All You Need to Know
- Start time: 00:00 BST (prelims); 02:00 BST (main card)
- Event date: Sun 10th May
- Venue: Prudential Center, New Jersey
- How to watch: TNT Sports / HBO Max
- Event markets: Click here
Tip 1 – Khamzat Chimaev by decision @ 3/1
Getting to the top of the mountain in the promotion is one thing, staying there is another as many undefeated fighters have shown throughout the years.
So just how effective will middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev (15-0-0) be now that he has more to lose than a flawless record?
The answer writes itself if the Russian’s first defence is like any one of his previous maulings.
His opponent, Sean Strickland (30-7-0), is no stranger to the middleweight crown himself after snatching it from seemingly out of nowhere against Israel Adesanya at UFC 293 only to lose it straight after to Dricus Du Plessis.
Strickland’s recent win over Anthony Hernandez is the reason he’s getting a second crack at the gold here – on top of presenting a unique challenge to ‘Borz’ given his penchant for striking over the champ's wrestling abilities.
The American showed he has the counters to a perfectly constructed gameplan with how he sniped Hernandez before he could get going.
But Hernandez is no Chimaev, which will require the slickest version of Strickland we’ve seen if he stands any chance in New Jersey.
And we might get that yet, but lightning won’t strike twice here like it did against Adesanya.
Still, his toughness, mixed with that trademark arrogance, should be enough to survive all five rounds.
Tip 2 – Joshua Van most significant strikes landed @ 7/20
Can you name a more exciting high-pressure striker than the reigning flyweight champion Joshua Van (16-2-0)?
We’re certainly struggling, with the 24-year-old spinning nothing but non-stop hits since arriving on the big stage back in 2023 – highlights include beatdowns of Brandon Royval and Bruno Silva to name a few.
Like Chimaev, this will be the Myanmar fighter’s first title defence after winning the title in bizarre circumstances after Alexandre Pantoja’s arm snapped within 26 seconds of the fight when trying to brace himself from an awkward takedown attempt.
Unlike Chimaev, however, Van enters this contest as both the champion but also the underdog against an older elite grappler with quite the resume of his own in Tatsuro Taira (18-1-0).
‘The Best’ earned this shot by absolutely dismantling Brandon Moreno in December after face-cranking Hyun Sung Park to submission on short notice on the occasion before that.
Both fighters have only lost one fight in their UFC careers – Van to Charles Johnson and Taira to Royval – and have bounced back just as strong, if not stronger, while sharpening their most effective weapons.
For Van, that’s high-volume striking that the Japanese fighter will have to stuff if he’s to have any chance despite his own effectiveness from a vertical base.
Similarly, Taira’s takedown abilities should give ‘The Fearless’ plenty to be fearful of should he fall into one of the Japanese fighter’s carefully laid traps.
He might not be able to punch his way out of this one in all honesty, but he’ll certainly try.
Tip 3 – Alexander Volkov to win the bout @ 3/5
Checking chins and taking names is what Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-2-0) does best. Just look at the bodies he’s knocked out within the first two rounds in his last three: Derrick Lewis, Shamil Gaziev and Ante Delija.
Unfortunately for ‘Salsa Boy’, Alexander Volkov (39-11-0) doesn’t play like that – not anymore.
There was a time where the Russian would have loved nothing more than to trade bombs with a fellow beast, but age and experience has made him a lot more controlled in how he breaks down an opponent.
Take his systematic takedown of Sergei Pavlovich in 2024 for the perfect example.
‘Drago’ kept Pavlovich at arm’s length throughout the fight by beaming him with straight jabs for 15 minutes to nullify those looping overhead shots, earning him the unanimous decision as a result.
Cortes-Acosta winds his shots up in the exact same way and is a very similar profile to Pavlovich… see where we’re going with this?
The Dominican has put the heavyweight division on his back the past year and delivered some emphatic moments – beating the brakes off Lewis like he did was unbelievable – but every run comes to an end eventually.
Our prediction: death by a thousand jabs and Volkov’s hand raised to set up a potential heavyweight title fight in the not-so-distant future.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
