CHAMPIONS LEAGUE SEMI-FINALS SECOND LEG TIPS: FOULS THE PLAY IN BAYERN-PSG?
The lights couldn’t be any brighter for Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and PSG with a place in the Champions League final in Budapest on the line across two star-studded ties.
We went four for four in last week’s Champions League semi-final first legs... ready to see what we’ve picked out for the second legs?
Champions League semi-finals: All You Need to Know
- Kick-off: 20:00 BST (both nights)
- Event date: Tue 5th & Wed 6th May
- Stadium: Emirates Stadium (Tue); Allianz Arena (Wed)
- How to watch: Prime Video (Tue); TNT Sports / HBO Max (Wed)
- Event markets: Click here
Tip 1 – Gyokeres & Alvarez over 0.5 shots on target @ 11/10
Viktor Gyokeres and Julian Alvarez are two of the main reasons this game hangs in the balance.
Both were very tricky customers at the Metropolitano for the other’s defences; holding up the ball, running in behind, emphatically finishing their penalties… enough to suggest Tuesday night could follow a similar pattern.
Our first pick is Gyokeres and Alvarez to have a shot on target each – a solid shout given their effectiveness in front of goal whenever they play one another in Europe.
In the league phase, the Sweden international registered three shots on target and converted two of those chances to bag himself a brace against Diego Simeone’s side.
Alvarez, who faces a late fitness test to play here, was not so lucky with three shots off target but was still a constant threat throughout – much like last Wednesday when the 2022 World Cup winner hit the target twice, forcing a save out of David Raya with the first and scoring from the spot with the other.
The anytime scorer option is there if you want to bump this bet up a bit for better odds but we’re erring on the side of caution given the size of the occasion and just how defensive either side can get.
Tip 2 – Under 4.5 goals in Bayern Munich vs PSG @ 4/6
Where were you when Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich put on one of the most entertaining games of football in a long, long time?
We knew there would be goals – predicting at least three in our first-leg tips – but nine goals in a single game to set the record for the most in a single Champions League semi-final since the competition changed from the European Cup went above and beyond all expectations.
The return leg is as highly anticipated as it gets and, with both Vincent Kompany and Luis Enrique rotating key players this past weekend, there will most certainly be goals yet again.
Just not as many as advertised.
Last week’s spectacle aside only 45% of meetings between these two have seen over 2.5 goals, averaging around 2.3 per game – as seen in Bayern’s 2-1 win in the French capital in the league phase last November.
Game management should also be considered with PSG leading the tie by a single goal heading to Allianz Arena.
Both sides now know just how damaging the other can be when the likes of Ousmane Dembele, Harry Kane, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Michael Olise and Luis Diaz are given the time and space to do what they do best.
No, we expect a much more controlled game here – especially from a Bayern team that had only conceded 14 goals in the competition until last week.
Tip 3 – Over 13.5 fouls conceded by PSG @ 19/20
It will be a game remembered for goals and moments of brilliance, to where the number of PSG fouls almost went unnoticed amid the chaos.
The reigning European champions committed 14 on the night – a natural reaction when you look at who they were bringing down the most: Olise (twice), Kane (three times) and Diaz (four times).
With Bayern playing at home we’re expecting this number to be about the same if not more, especially given PSG doubled their foul count compared to their seven in the previous meeting between the sides.
There may be fewer goals but the fouling isn’t going anywhere – not in a semi-final of this magnitude where big pressure can equally lead to mistakes, mistimed challenges and so on.
Bayern chasing the game on their own turf should only increase the likelihood of drawing fouls from a frustrated opposition, especially in those key attacking areas Kane and co. typically occupy.
Expect that left-hand side to be quite a hotspot in particular with Achraf Hakimi now injured leaving another player to deal with Diaz, who was electric at the Parc des Princes in November and again last week.
Have your name up in European lights again by combining all four predictions in our 21/5 Acca here.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change.
