FA CUP SEMI-FINALS TIPS: BACK LEEDS TO MARCH ON & CHELSEA INDISCIPLINE
FA Cup glory awaits one of the four remaining clubs as Wembley gets ready for two epic semi-finals.
Southampton are the country’s in-form side and have been rewarded for shocking Arsenal in the last round with a clash against Manchester City on Saturday evening.
The Saints are looking for a third Premier League scalp in a row, having knocked out Fulham before the Gunners, while City are chasing a domestic treble.
Sunday sees a Chelsea side in crisis take on a Leeds side full of confidence having hit 40 points in the Premier League.
The Blues are once again without a permanent manager – a fantastic opportunity for Leeds as they chase a first FA Cup since 1972.
Here, we pick out three of the best bets as the last four battle it out under the arch...
Tip 1 – Taylor Harwood-Bellis 1+ shot on target (90min) vs Man City @ 6/1
What a few months it has been for Southampton.
While a recent draw against Bristol City has hampered their automatic promotion bid, the fact that they were even in the conversation for it is a minor miracle given they were in 15th place at the end of January.
Former City defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis skippered the Saints in their stunning quarter-final win over Arsenal and the Englishman has been a mainstay of their brilliant recent run.
Harwood-Bellis has helped Southampton go 20 games unbeaten and, while important at the heart of the defence, he has been a real threat in the other box this season too.
He averages over a shot per game in the Championship this season and has six goals from 16 shots on target.
Chances may well be hard to come by for Southampton and set-pieces could be key given 33 of his 40 shots this season have been with his head.
Southampton average over five corners per game in the league and had four against Arsenal in the last round.
Harwood-Bellis’ only FA Cup goal actually came for the Citizens against Port Vale in 2019 but he did score at Wembley on his England debut – if the Championship side can force corners and crosses into the area, then he may well fancy another taste of glory here.
The 6/1 for Harwood-Bellis to at least force the City keeper into a save here stands out as good value.
Tip 2 – Leeds to win the tie vs Chelsea & Moises Caicedo to be carded @ 6/1
Oh, Chelsea.
The Blues are in complete disarray once more and are searching for yet another manager. Their latest, Liam Rosenior, lasted just three-and-a-half months of his six-and-a-half-year deal.
For many clubs that would be a surprise – but not Chelsea. Now interim boss Calum McFarlane takes the faltering Blues to Wembley to face a Leeds side in buoyant mood.
The Whites will more than fancy this one. Unbeaten in both league games against the west Londoners this season, they have scored five goals in those two games.
Chelsea haven’t scored at all in five games as they lost five consecutive matches without finding the net for the first time in over a century.
Their insipid display at Brighton will give Daniel Farke’s men even more confidence – not that they needed it given they haven’t lost since a defeat to Sunderland on 3rd March.
McFarlane took the side to Manchester City earlier this season and earned a draw, but things just seem calamitous at the Bridge now. Leeds may well feel they won’t have a better chance of reaching a first FA Cup final since 1973.
Chelsea need to show a lot more fight than they have of late… but have to keep discipline too.
Moises Caicedo has more yellow cards than any of their players with 12 and could well find himself in the notebook once more, just as he did against Leeds at Stamford Bridge in February.
The Ecuadorian has also made the most fouls of any Chelsea player in the Premier League with 43 – the ninth highest in the division.
It’s just hard to overlook Leeds in this one, despite the desperation Chelsea will have for a win.
They are playing better than the Blues at the moment and that will continue at Wembley; 6/1 for Caicedo to be carded in 90 minutes and Leeds to go through is well worth a look.
Tip 3 – Nico O’Reilly to score vs Southampton & Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score vs Chelsea @ 11/1
These two have scored some huge goals for their clubs this season – and what better stage to grab at least one more?
Nico O’Reilly has nine in all competitions and has already struck twice at Wembley, bagging both goals as City beat Arsenal in the EFL Cup final.
The versatile 21-year-old has flourished in a breakthrough season and is a constant threat, having 10 shots on target in his last seven Premier League matches.
He has become one of the first names on the teamsheet for Pep Guardiola, not least because of his ability to fill in defensively as well as in midfield, but wherever he features he is a constant thorn in the opposition's side.
The same can be said of Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The former Everton striker is enjoying a renaissance in West Yorkshire with 12 goals in all competitions and, though goals have dried up of late, he has already scored against the Blues once so far this term.
Calvert-Lewin dispatched a penalty in normal time and one in the shootout at West Ham to help send Leeds to Wembley and how he would love a goal in the semi-final to have them return there once more.
His World Cup dream is still alive, too, but his goalscoring touch needs to be rediscovered to realise it.
O’Reilly and Calvert-Lewin to find the back of the net in their respective games is a very reasonable 11/1. Both players can help keep the FA Cup dream alive.
Odds correct at time of publication but subject to change
