2024-03-11

Megan Nicholls Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Tips – Supreme, Champion Hurdle & more

BetMGM horse racing ambassador Megan Nicholls is here every day of the Cheltenham Festival bringing her insight and opinion to bear on the biggest week in the sport.

On this occasion the former jockey, now an award-winning television pundit, previews the action on the opening day at Prestbury Park. All seven races are on her hit list including the Champion Hurdle, Supreme, Arkle and more.

Remember, for the latest odds, specials, profiles, blogs and more visit the BetMGM Cheltenham Festival Hub.

Cheltenham 1.30 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

This race is really, really open. Often you need a horse that stays pretty well so I’m going to go Firefox (9/2) here.

He disappointed at Naas last time – it was way too bad to be true though, having beaten Ballyburn prior to that run. I think he’s got red-hot form, Gordon Elliott reported that he was not 100% right and had scoped dirty after Naas.

Since then he has obviously been freshened up and he missed the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown last month. His training at home has been really pleasing. If we think Ballyburn is such a good thing later in the week, then how can we look away from a horse like Firefox, who actually beat him in a maiden hurdle?

I hope that they revert back to the more positive tactics and if Firefox is firing then I think he’ll bowl along and take Jack Kennedy into the race a lot better than he did last time.

Tullyhill (3/1 fav) is currently the favourite with fellow Willie Mullins runner Mystical Power (7/2) right there too. I don’t think Mystical Power’s jumping has been good enough so that could catch him out.

Personally, it’s between Tullyhill and Firefox. I was scratching my head slightly between them as Tullyhill has been solid and much better since going down to the two-mile trip. He’s looked sharp but you need a horse that can stay and Firefox is that horse.

If we’re looking at an each-way chance then I’m really hoping that Jeriko Du Reponet (7/1) can outrun his odds. His form is also red-hot so if I’m looking at one for places it’d be him.

Megan’s Selection: Firefox WIN, Jeriko Du Reponet EW

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Cheltenham 2.10 – Arkle Challenge Trophy

This is a real headache but I’m going to take on Gaelic Warrior (10/3 fav).

He’s got a hood added for the first time but on the Old Course, which is tighter than the New Course, down to the two miles I think the lengths he gives away by going right-handed on a left-handed course is a real negative.

No doubt he’s got the biggest engine but I’m not sure this is the right race. Willie Mullins has quite a strong hand in here with Il Etait Temps (11/2) and Hunters Yarn (5/1) as well as Gaelic Warrior but I’m actually going to look at Quilixios (6/1).

He was right back to form at Naas last time where he jumped very well. He goes well at Cheltenham too – he won the Triumph Hurdle in 2021 – and he’s rock solid.

Quilixios is two from three chasing and that middle run he ran over three miles he never went, he was tailed off and it was just an absolute no-show. They gave him a bit of time, brought him back down to the trip that suits him best and he was very impressive at Naas.

He travels well and will be able to hold a nice position. Although I’ve said the dropping back down in trip is a positive he is a strong stayer at the two miles.

There are question marks over so many of these horses and he’s one that – if you take out the run at Punchestown in November – he’s so consistent.

Megan’s Selection: Quilixios WIN

Cheltenham 2.50 – Handicap Chase

I’m going with Trelawne (8/1). He is up in trip and is a pretty consistent type, he’s got decent form this season.

He ran a good race at Cheltenham in December behind Ginny’s Destiny and ran well again at Wetherby in January. Trelawne wasn’t beaten all that far, with cheekpieces on for the first time, in the Novices’ Chase at Exeter last month.

That was only a three-runner race but Tahmuras has come out and boosted the form having gone very close at Kempton next time. Crebilly, who won at Exeter, is a pretty short price in the Festival Plate on Thursday so the form there is decent.

Trelawne is up in trip for the first time – so unexposed over fences at three miles – but he was a winner at three miles over hurdles at Uttoxeter previously, so I’m going for him.

Connections are talking about Meetingofthewaters (5/1 fav) as a potential Gold Cup type but he’s up a total of 17lbs since he won the feature race at Leopardstown in December. That’s a big ask for him but, if he really is a Gold Cup type, then nothing is going to be getting near him but we’re yet to see that.

The massive each-way shout could be Kitty’s Light (33/1).

He’s a really strong stayer who comes right and goes well in the spring. He won the Gold Cup at Sandown last April, is off a fairly competitive mark and, although he seems like he’s been around forever, he’s actually only an eight-year-old.

Kitty’s Light seems massively overpriced, he’ll stay very well and he might just outrun those odds.

Megan’s Selection: Trelawne WIN; Kitty’s Light EW

Cheltenham 3.30 – Champion Hurdle

This is now pretty straightforward. With Constitution Hill out, State Man (3/10 fav) is very much the best of the rest by some way.

He’s been very good this season, such a solid horse. I can’t knock him for anything really, so State Man is the winner here.

I’ll go for a forecast with Iberico Lord (10/1). He was very impressive in the Greatwood Hurdle and absolutely bolted up last time in the feature hurdle race at Newbury. He has got to step up and he’s obviously taking a big step up in grade.

He’s going the right way and there could be any amount of improvement left to come.

Irish Point (11/2) is proven at this level and comes back down in trip – it could be that State Man and Irish Point are way ahead but Iberico Lord could just be open to anything so I’ll take the punt.

Megan’s Selection: State Man 1st, Iberico Lord 2nd Forecast

Cheltenham 4.10 – Mares’ Hurdle

Lossiemouth (8/13 fav) is super, super talented. She was very impressive in the International Hurdle on her return this season.

The question is stepping up in trip into unknown territory – she’s yet to race over this distance – but if she can relax then her turn of foot is very impressive.

She handles any ground and is certainly the most talented mare in the field. She should take the beating. I was actually hoping she might take on State Man in the Champion Hurdle, she could’ve won with that weight allowance. That being the case, she really should be winning here provided she settles.

The big danger is her stablemate Ashroe Diamond (5/1), who is back up in trip. She’s a talented mare and will see the trip out so she’s the biggest threat to Lossiemouth.

For an each-way shout, I think Lantry Lady (33/1) for Henry de Bromhead is an interesting one. She’s two from two and was very impressive at Gowran Park last time, she could be anything here.

She’s stepping up in trip and grade but I think she’ll be fine, she is the one out of all the outsiders who could have an impact and outrun her odds.

Megan’s Selection: Lossiemouth WIN; Lantry Lady EW

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Cheltenham 4.50 – Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

This is always a really tricky race to try to work out.

For a big price each-way I’m going to go Roaring Legend (25/1) for Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen. He’s a horse I liked the first time I saw him, finishing in behind Kalif Du Berlais at Kempton in January. That form has been boosted.

He was then in behind Liari at Musselburgh which wasn’t a bad run at all. He was possibly a bit disappointing when finishing third at Market Rasen last month – however he has now got a mark and it looks like a fairly generous one at 122.

I think he could outrun his odds and prove the each-way value in this race.

Otherwise, I do really fancy Liari (8/1) for my dad. He’s a horse we consider to have the ability to be running in the Grade 1 Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree. He had the Triumph Hurdle entry as well but dad has decided to go with this instead.

It’s almost like a limited handicap because the bottom weight is only 10st 11lbs so it’s not a massive margin – only a stone difference is a blessing really. If Liari was going to be good enough to be competitive in the Triumph and considered good enough to be competitive in the Anniversary Hurdle then he ought to be running a huge race here.

Liari is three from three, is very straightforward and a strong traveller who will be able to hold his position. He’s unknown on a track like Cheltenham because his runs have all been on flat tracks but, with the way he goes and the way he’s so straightforward, it shouldn’t be a problem.

Megan’s Selection: Liari WIN; Roaring Legend EW

Cheltenham 5.30 – National Hunt Novices’ Chase

The fact this race is paying respect to Maureen Mullins is very important to note this year. She was a legend within our sport.

But, as a race itself, it just doesn’t seem to work. It always attracts a really small field, which is a real negative.

However, Willie and Patrick Mullins will want to win this race as much as any of the others and they have the joint favourite here in Embassy Gardens (2/1 joint fav) who is two from two chasing.

He looks to stay very well so moving up an extra bit in distance shouldn’t be a problem. He was very impressive in a Grade 3 at Naas last time, winning pretty much at a canter over 3m 1f of testing ground.

With that in mind, the 3m 6f here should not be an issue for Embassy Gardens.

I see quite a lot of Willie Mullins’ horses have a first-time hood on this time round. Often we see them with earplugs but the team have decided to put a hood on quite a few horses on the Tuesday for the first time. It’s probably just to help them relax with the busy Cheltenham atmosphere.

Embassy Gardens is one of those with the first-time hood, hopefully that will be a benefit and not a negative.

I think they have purposely targeted this horse for a race being run in memory of Maureen and I’d be very surprised if he was beaten after being very good in both his chasing starts to date while jumping well too.

Megan’s Selection: Embassy Gardens WIN

All odds correct at time of publication but subject to change

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